Bar Down Hockey Blog
Friday 29 July 2011
Jannik Hansen signed through 2013-2014
Tuesday 26 July 2011
10 Intriguing UFA's
Ray Emery wants the opportunity to be a starting goalie in the NHL |
McCabe is the best offensive defenceman left on the market |
Age: 35
10-11 cap hit: $5.75M
Age: 27
10-11 cap hit: $1.4M
Age: 32
10-11 cap hit: $4.5M
Forwards
If Selanne returns it's unlikely he will leave Orange County |
Saturday 9 July 2011
Paul Kariya
Kariya played for the Ducks from 1994 to 2003 |
Kariya lay motionless on the ice following the devastating body check |
Monday 4 July 2011
Completely Untrue Rumors
After a poor performance in the final two games of the Stanley Cup Final by Roberto Luongo, it's only logical for the former Canucks' captain to be cut loose, as suggested by Damien Cox. Since a deal has not been reached with Zach Parise by the New Jersey Devils, a great trade for both clubs would be Luongo, Alexandre Burrows, and a pick for Parise. This would give the Canucks another great forward while also giving the reigns to a better goaltender in Cory Schneider. With 35 games under his belt, it's evident Schneider is ready for a cup run. Alexandre Burrows is a nice throw-in to sweeten this deal. On NJ's side, they get a NHL starter to take over from Father Time, Martin Brodeur, as he would obviously retire to a much younger goalie despite posting a 2.45 GAA and 0.903 save% while playing for a team below five hundred.
Another good trade for the Canucks would be to exchange Ryan Kesler, Cory Schneider, and a pick for Shea Weber. VAN gets a premiere defenseman as Nashville still haven't signed the Norris Trophy candidate, so it's obvious for them to move him and receive a good return on him. Kesler had a great year and Schneider is poised for starting duties. This is a nice exchange for a former defenseman who played a key role on Team Canada's Olympic team while only giving up a backup goaltender and a second line center.
After Gillis' hints, the Vancouver Canucks are probably involved in making a huge trade in the coming months. Hopefully this will be soon so the Canucks can actually become a good team for once.
Sunday 3 July 2011
The Biggest Steal of Free Agency
July 1st, Tomas Vokoun was regarded as arguably the best netminder available, but while Philly signed Ilya Bryzgalov, Colorado snapped up Semyon Varlamov, Tampa Bay re-signed Dwayne Roloson and Phoenix went the economical route with Mike Smith, Vokoun found himself without a team or contract. It certainly looked bleak for the twelve year veteran but instead of returning to Florida, he waited for an offer from a team with a better supporting cast. A day later, on his 35th birthday no less, an offer finally rolled around in the form of a 1 year, 1.5 million dollar contract from the Washington Capitals. The deal is mutually beneficial as it provides Vokoun a chance to play for Lord Stanley and the Capitals a veteran goalie at a bargain bin price.
While the market for Vokoun had dried up, it was by no means a slight on his playing abilities. Since the lockout, Vokoun has recorded a save percentage of .918 or better in each of the six seasons while no other goalie has surpassed that mark more than four times. Putting up these numbers in a mediocre system such as Florida’s is no small feat considering, over the past two years, the Panthers have ranked 27th and 28th in league scoring, putting up an average of 2.39 goals per game.
It may also seem easy to critique Vokoun’s inability to win the games that truly matter in the post-season, but in two trips to the playoffs, the Czech backstopper posted quality numbers – a 2.00 goals against average and .939 save percentage in six games against Detroit in 2004, and a 2.96 GAA and .902 SV% in five games against San Jose, though both trips came as a member of a much more defensively sound Predators squad.
Naturally, none of this guarantees that Vokoun will be the saving grace of a Washington club that hasn’t managed to escape the second round since 1998 but at the very least, it provides themselves with the opportunity to let talented young netminders Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby develop – as backup goalie for the former and AHL starter for the latter.
One thing’s for sure; the deal is one of the biggest steals of the offseason. In a worst case scenario, Vokoun is unable to transfer his Floridian heroics to the nation’s capital and is let go at the end of the season with a tandem of Neuvirth and Holtby taking over duties the following year; at best, Vokoun is the final addition needed to solidify Washington as a post-season threat as they manage to capture the ever elusive first Stanley Cup in franchise history.
Saturday 2 July 2011
Should Ehrhoff fire his agent?
As we sift through the deals completed on Fantastic Free Agent Frenzy Friday, I'd like to take some time to look at probably the most important Canucks-related signing of 2011- Christian Ehrhoff's 10 year deal with the Sabres. What struck me most about the deal was the average value of 4 million per year. At first glance, it seems to be less than what Ehrhoff could have earned by taking the 'Nucks contract and then hitting the open market at the age of 33. With the help of a finance-literate advisor, I did some simple number crunching to see whether or not Ehrhoff had actually taken less money to go with the Sabres.
The first thing to do is to lay out the numbers we know for sure. Assuming the Canucks did as they said and offered Ehrhoff the same deal as Bieksa, the two deals will compare over ten years as below.
Year | Money with Canucks(millions of USD) | Money with Sabres(millions of USD) |
1 | 7.0 | 10 |
2 | 4.5 | 8 |
3 | 5 | 4 |
4 | 4 | 4 |
5 | 2.5 | 4 |
6 | ? | 4 |
7 | ? | 3 |
8 | ? | 1 |
9 | ? | 1 |
10 | ? | 1 |
We don't know for sure how much Ehrhoff would have recieved once his Canucks contract was up- injuries or inconsistency could mean his next contract would vary from 5 million per year to to a big fat zero. At 33 however, Ehrhoff would be by no means in the twilight of his career. Let's make a pretty conservative estimation, barring any injuries, and say Ehrhoff nabs a 17 million, 5 year contract at the age of 33, which is mildly front-loaded. The two contracts stack up like so:
Year | Money with Canucks(millions of USD) | Money with Sabres(millions of USD) |
1 | 7.0 | 10 |
2 | 4.5 | 8 |
3 | 5 | 4 |
4 | 4 | 4 |
5 | 2.5 | 4 |
6 | 4 | 4 |
7 | 4 | 3 |
8 | 4 | 1 |
9 | 3 | 1 |
10 | 2 | 1 |
Total $ | 40 | 40 |
Well isn't that interesting. Using only our conservative estimation, Ehrhoff actually moved to the Sabres for... the same amount of money. If he cashes in a la Ed Jovanovski once his Nucks contract is up, Ehrhoff actually ends up making less money with the Sabres. That's not even taking into account intangibles like living quality in Vancouver, and the higher likelihood of winning a Cup (or at least making it to Game 7 before losing and crushing the dreams of certain high school students turned bloggers).
But there must be some reason for Ehrhoff taking the Sabres contract. Figuring it out takes a bit of math and finance knowledge. As my advisor reminds me, he is getting a whopping 18 million over the first two years. The other option- the Canucks/UFA "deal"- is structured more evenly. What that results in is a higher present value for the Sabres deal. For those not as finance-literate as my advisor (like me), present value works out like this; money that you get today can be invested immediately, and will earn money on that investment. Money that you get five years from now will not have been earning money during that five years, and its present value (its value to you at this moment) will be correspondingly less.
So, assuming Ehrhoff could have gotten a 6 percent return on whatever investment he's making with the cash- maybe he opens up a roadside currywurst-and-sauerkraut stand with Dirk Nowitzki- the present value (or PV) of each deal works out like so:
Year | Money with Canucks(millions of USD) | Money with Sabres(millions of USD) |
1 | 7.0 | 10 |
2 | 4.5 | 8 |
3 | 5 | 4 |
4 | 4 | 4 |
5 | 2.5 | 4 |
6 | 4 | 4 |
7 | 4 | 3 |
8 | 4 | 1 |
9 | 3 | 1 |
10 | 2 | 1 |
Total $ | 40 | 40 |
PV | 30.73 | 32.66 |
Now it starts to make sense. Ehrhoff gets 18 million in the first two years with the Sabres, but only 11.5 million with the Canucks. If he's earning 6 percent each year on the difference, it becomes pretty significant, even if the two contracts end up giving him the same amount of cash. Of course, there's a whole host of unknown variables that we ignored, simply because its hard to calculate, say, the odds of injury for a player other than Sami Salo. (110 percent).
So to answer our first hypothesis- no. Ehrhoff should not fire his agent. But he should start on that currywurst stand quick, before Dirk spends all of his championship bonus on lederhosen or comically oversized beer steins or whatever it is that those crazy Germans like.
Friday 1 July 2011
July 1st Free Agent Frenzy - Winners & Losers
The Winners:
Colorado Avalanche:
Player | Years | Dollars/Year | 2010-2011 Stats |
Jean-Sebastien Giguere | Two Years | $1,250,000 | 11-11-4, 2.87 GAA, .900 SV% |
Chuck Kobasew | Two Years | $1,250,000 | 9G, 7A, -6 Plus/Minus, 19 PIM, |
Jan Hejda | Four Years | $3,250,000 | 5G, 15A, -6 Plus/Minus, 28 PIM |
Semyon Varlamov | Two Years | $2,750,000 | 11-9-5, 2.23 GAA, .924 SV% |
Semyon Varlamov looks to take over starting goaltender duties in Denver.
The Spin:
Many expected the Avs to come out in 2010-2011 seasons and continue where they left off after putting up a good effort in the playoffs before eventually being knocked out by San Jose. Unfortunately, starting goaltender Craig Anderson was unable to recapture the magic that led him toward a 38 win ’09-’10 season. In 33 games, Anderson had a 3.28 GAA and .897 save percentage before being dealt to Ottawa. Without the presence of a dependable goalie, Colorado plummeted in the standings and ended up with the worst second half record in the entire league. It was an obvious flaw in an otherwise promising franchise, so general manager Greg Sherman set out to rectify the issue. Hours later, Semyon Varlamov and veteran J.S. Giguere were headed to Denver. Varlamov is the safe bet to take over as starting goaltender with Giguere pushing him should he falter or sustain yet another long term injury. Kobasew and Hejda are also decent additions for depth, though Hejda is being slightly overpaid.
Florida Panthers:
Player | Years | Dollars/Year | 2010-2011 Stats |
Ed Jovanovski | Four Years | $4,125,000 | 5G, 9A, +4 Plus/Minus, 39 PIM |
Jose Theodore | Two Years | $1,500,000 | 15-11-3, 2.71 GAA, .916 SV% |
Marcel Goc | Three Years | $1,700,000 | 9G, 15A, +10 Plus/Minus, 6 PIM |
Scottie Upshall | Four Years | $4,500,000 | 22G, 12A, -7 Plus/Minus, 52 PIM |
Tomas Fleischmann | Four Years | $4,500,000 | 12G, 19A, +2 Plus/Minus, 18PIM |
Sean Bergenheim | Four Years | $2,750,000 | 14G, 15A, 0 Plus/Minus, 56 PIM |
Kris Versteeg | One Year | $3,083,333 | 21G, 25A, -9 Plus/Minus, 53 PIM |
The Spin:
Dale Tallon has made the most of his time in Florida. The man behind the Chicago championship team has managed to draw some key free agents and players to sunny Florida with promises of a rebirth of the franchise. It seems they’re buying in. With the likelihood of All-Star goaltender Tomas Vokoun leaving town growing with each passing day, the Panthers went out and signed the much maligned Jose Theodore to a two year deal. Should Vokoun move on as suspected, Theodore and last year’s backup Scott Clemmensen should vie for the starting position throughout the year. Don’t be shocked if Clemmensen ends up on top either – he put up a respectable 8-11-7 record with a 2.62 GAA and .911 SV% last season in 31 appearances.
Tallon also continued his trend of acquiring ex-Blackhawks by trading for Kris Versteeg. The versatile winger never really found his groove after being traded to Philadelphia mid-season from Toronto but that was with him playing mostly second and third line shifts. With the expected promotion to first and second line duty, a return to his days of fifty point seasons shouldn’t be far behind – especially if he ends up on a line with newly acquired winger Tomas Fleischmann. An underrated forward, Fleischmann is looking to rebound from a season cut short by health issues. At $4.5 million a year, he’s a tad expensive but he could prove valuable down the road as long as he stays healthy.
Florida didn’t stop there, adding Sean Bergenheim, Scottie Upshall, Marcel Goc and ex-Panther Ed Jovanovski to their roster. The deals were all done at a fair price, and help add scoring depth to a team that was devoid of scoring, period, last year.
Tallon seems to want to build a team based around a team effort rather than the ability of one or two key scorers. If the team clicks as well as expected and their goaltending is solid throughout the year, we may just see the Panthers return to the post-season for the first time since 2000.
Washington Capitals:
Player | Years | Dollars/Year | 2010-2011 Stats |
Jeff Halpern | One Year | $825,000 | 11G, 15A, +6 Plus/Minus, 29 PIM |
Roman Hamrlik | Two Years | $3,500,000 | 5G, 29A, +6 Plus/Minus, 81 PIM |
Joel Ward | Four Years | $3,000,000 | 10G, 19A, -1 Plus/Minus, 42 PIM |
Sean Collins | One Year | $650,000 | 1G, 0A, +2 Plus/Minus, 0 PIM |
Ryan Potulny | Two Years | $500,000 | 0G, 0A, -1 Plus/Minus, 0 PIM |
The Spin:
In my mind, the Capitals are so close to finally breaking through in the playoffs and the additions of roll players Roman Hamrlik and Joel Ward should help cement Washington as contenders. Sure, Hamrlik and Ward aren’t big time names within the free agent pool but they’re severely underrated as contributors. Hamrlik has long been a steadfast presence on the blueline for the Habs, putting up an average of 0.38 points per game over the last four seasons. A move to the more offensively-minded Caps, and possibly a partnership with two time All-Star Mike Green, should help boost his stock and provide the Capitals with another dependable d-man.
Joel Ward had flown under the radar for years, perhaps because he played for Nashville or maybe because he has 40 regular season goals in his career. Whatever the reason, he briefly captured the hearts of Tennessean hockey fans when he put up 13 points in 12 post-season games these past playoffs with most of them coming against the Canucks. Turns out not only were Vancouverites and Nashvillians taking notice, but also Washington general manager George McPhee who inked Ward to a four year, $12 million dollar contract earlier today. He may not fit within the Capitals’ top two lines, but he’s a more than capable option for third line duties.
The Losers:
Edmonton Oilers:
Player | Years | Dollars/Year | 2010-2011 Stats |
Cam Barker | One Year | $2,250,000 | 1G, 4A, -10 Plus/Minus, 34 PIM |
Eric Belanger | Three Years | $1,750,000 | 13G, 27A, +11 Plus/Minus, 36 PIM |
Ben Eager | Three Years | $1,100,000 | 7G, 10A, +4 Plus/Minus, 120 PIM |
Darcy Hordichuk | One Year | $825,000 | 1G, 4A, -1 Plus/Minus, 76 PIM |
The Spin:
Yes, I know the Oilers weren’t looking to make a splash. Yes, I know they have years to wait before being Cup contenders, and yes, I know they needed some grit. But with the long awaited departure of expensive veteran Sheldon Souray and close to $15 million in cap space, the Oilers could have brought their future to them rather than wait. At close to two million dollars a year for the duo, Hordichuk and Eager provide a veteran presence for the many up and coming stars in Edmonton’s system, but the real issue “The City of Champions” needed to deal with was acquiring a presence on their backend, not players who hinder their team by taking needless penalties as Eager and Hordichuk are apt to do. Barker looks to be Oil Town’s shot at nabbing the aforementioned backend presence, but with stats like 1 goal, 4 helpers and a minus 10 rating in 52 games, Barker clearly leaves something to be desired.
Despite the positioning in the “Losers” category, the signing of Eric Belanger is a quality one. With 40 points last year, a cap hit of $1.75 million per year seems more than fair for his talents.
Montreal Canadiens:
Player | Years | Dollars/Year | 2010-2011 Stats |
Erik Cole | Four Years | $4,500,000 | 26G, 26A, -1 Plus/Minus, 49 PIM |
Peter Budaj | Two Years | $1,150,000 | 15-21-4, 3.20 GAA, .895 SV% |
The Spin:
Over-paid! *Clap Clap Clapclapclap*
Erik Cole was today’s winner of Most Overpaid Player, receiving a four year, $18 million dollar contract from the Bleu, Blanc et Rouge. It’s beyond me as to why a player would earn four and a half million dollars a year after compiling 52 points – especially when he spent most of his ice time with talented sniper Eric Staal. Cole will be welcomed as an additional scoring threat on a second line devoid of depth, but Montreal paid too much of a premium for a player who’s missed 107 games over the past three seasons.
Philadelphia Flyers:
Player | Years | Dollars/Year | 2010-2011 Stats |
Jaromir Jagr | One Year | $3,300,000 | 19G, 31A, +6 Plus/Minus, 48 PIM (KHL) |
Andreas Lilja | One Year | $750,000 | 1G, 6A, -15 Plus/Minus, 28 PIM |
Maxime Talbot | Five Years | $1,800,000 | 8G, 13A, -3 Plus/Minus, 66 PIM |
Jakub Voracek | One Year | $2,250,000 | 14G, 32A, -3 Plus/Minus, 26 PIM |
The Spin:
The Flyers cleared a massive amount of cap space last week with the trading of Mike Richards and Jeff Carter and were rumored to be in the running for the top prize of this year’s free agency – Brad Richards. Instead, Philly ended up with a hero of cross-state rival Pittsburgh – Jaromir Jagr. The 39 year old Czech is a wildcard next year for the Flyers as it’s anyone’s guess as to how well he plays in his return to the NHL. Voracek is solid add for his price considering he had four less points than Erik Cole this past year, but at close to half the price. However, if this is the biggest splash Philadelphia makes with their four million in cap room, then hockey fans in Pennsylvania will have the right to be disappointed and the Flyers’ label of “Loser” will be deserving even if they make more moves throughout the summer.
Phoenix Coyotes:
Player | Years | Dollars/Year | 2010-2011 Stats |
Radim Vrbata | Three Years | $3,000,000 | 19G, 29A, +5 Plus/Minus, 20 PIM |
Raffi Torres | Two Years | $1,750,000 | 14G, 15A, +4 Plus/Minus, 78 PIM |
Boyd Gordon | Two Years | $1,325,000 | 3G, 6A, -5 Plus/Minus, 16 PIM |
Mike Smith | Two Years | $2,000,000 | 13-6-1, 2.89 GAA, .899 SV% |
Alex Bolduc | One Year | $500,000 | 2G, 2A, +1 Plus/Minus, 21 PIM |
The Spin:
Ahh the ‘Yotes. The perennial losers of free agent frenzy now have even less draw for impending free agents as the team goes through numerous ownerships and location issues. Though they may have little to to no money to spend, Phoenix still needs to field a team whether it’s competitive or not. To fill the roster spots left by Eric Belanger, Ed Jovanovski, Vern Fiddler, Ilya Bryzgalov and free agent to be Keith Yandle, the Coyotes went with the most economic options – castoffs from other teams.
Mike Smith was signed to replace the departed Bryzgalov and is in position to be the team’s starting goaltender with career journeyman Jason LaBarbera as backup. Smith faltered midway through last season as part of a timeshare with Dan Ellis before the Lightning finally acquired Dwayne Roloson. Behind Roloson, Smith made a few spot starts in the playoffs where he played well, stopping 46 of 48 shots against in two relief appearances and a start, which was clearly enough to convince Phoenix management he was worth the investment.
Other notable castaways include ex-Canucks Alex Bolduc and Raffi Torres as well as ex-Capital Boyd Gordon. All three should see increased playing time with their new team but don’t spark much excitement for any remaining Phoenix fans.
You know you haven't been successful in free agency if your top acquisition is Raffi Torres.
So there you have it – the winners and losers of the first day of free agent frenzy. With 98 days left until the first game of the season, today’s winners have plenty of time to change their team from a Loser to a Winner and vice versa.
Think your team didn’t deserve to put be designated as a Loser/Winner? Let us know why in the comments below!